History just accelerated. The decapitation of the regime led by Ali Khamenei is seismic — but don’t confuse shockwaves with stability. Killing the head of a theocracy doesn’t dismantle the machinery beneath it. The IRGC, the patronage networks, the coercive state — that’s the real fight. President Donald Trump just placed a massive bet that precision force plus internal uprising equals transformation. Maybe it does. Maybe it spirals. The Left will scream “World War III.” The neocons will chant “finish the job.” The truth? Victory isn’t airstrikes. It’s what replaces the rubble. If America engages, it must be decisive, limited, and tied to a clear exit — not another forever war.
Definitely— across the board. And the Basij have to go. And that’ll be a local issue — and not a pretty one. One thing about Trump: the guy’s a gambler. I guess the casinos were a tipoff….
It wasn't that Jimmy Carter did not try to rescue the Hostages, it was that he had surrounded himself with semi-competent 'yes men' who did not speak truth to power in an effective way. Carter launches two attempts to rescue the Hostages. Operation Eagle Claw in April of 1980 failed because of a desert sandstorm that caused fatal damages when two aircraft hit each other because of the unpredictable, but preventable, harsh desert environment. The second attempt occurred in the fall of 1980, just before the 1980 election named Operation Credible Sport when another plane crashed during the operation planning. IMO - Carter was all appearance and no substance. No one can EVER say that about Trump!
We never should have installed the Shah in the first place, but when he was overthrown and our hostages were taken, it should have been seen as an act of war and Carter should have responded accordingly. 47 years later we are still dealing with his mistake.
Maybe, but I remember that the last Shah was seen as a kinder, more humane Shah than those before him, but he still had the radicals to deal with. The Ali Khamenei was allowed to escape and live in Paris until he could return and overthrow the Shah. Our problem with foreign policy is that we stive to the never to be achieved status of 'Great', when maybe we should settle for 'Good' today, and maybe 'Great' Tomorrow.
Wise point. One add: NOBODY saw the Ayatollah coming. Even his own cadre didn't expect the revolution to succeed (recall that the Persan royal family went back thousands of years). It remains one of history's great mysteries: Why didn't the Shah act? (If you're interested in this stuff: King of Kings, by Scott Anderson. Anderson is left of me, but this book is fascinating)
Also, for Eagle Claw: Carter couldn't control his generals. They were all arguing about who would do what during the rescue, and so he tried to parcel it out. Army had one piece, Marines another, Air Force another, etc. As a result, the plan was discombobulated, and -- crucially -- the comms were a mess. The team couldn't talk to each other! And then, as you rightly note, the sandstorm sunk it. I was a kid and I remember being embarrassed by the image of a crashed U.S. helicopter on the ground in the desert. Carter was the architect of the worst national malaise of my lifetime. Perhaps until Biden, I guess. At least Carter didn't have dementia and throw the borders open.
in 1978, I was 30 years old and a Special Agent with the Government. I had a photo from a news article after the fall of the Shah pinned on the wall by my desk. It showed Iranian military officers tied to stakes and being executed by the Ayatollah's followers. Before the fall of the Shah and the rise of the Ayatollah, human rights groups had protested against SAVAK, the Iranian security police. SAVAK was like a Boy Scout compared to what followed it. Carter did not have a clue what was going on. He was a man who had no business being the President, but he was.
Good piece…thanks. That said, I have a feeling that with Iran we may have gone a bridge too far. The elimination of an evil dictatorship really can’t be accomplished without a coordinated strategy. Bombings alone have never worked and we can’t rely on the locals to rise up in sufficient numbers to take over. Iran has gone from 25 million to 90 million people most of whom support the regime. So excuse me if I don’t see much coming from these attacks. What I do see is a lot of potential for rolling violence around the world as this death cult seeks revenge…along with an economic crisis brought about by oil curtailment. Seems to me that the smarter route for regime change would have been the removal of Cuba followed by ending the Ukraine conflict. Iran is a much larger undertaking but at this juncture it’s too late.
Change your country’s name back to Persia,…..sounds lovelier, softer, historical! Even romantic in a way……embrace everyone, worship your own religion or faith ! Your ancient ideas, buildings and peaceful verbal exchanges, …..bring a subconscious thought of love & respect , …..I bet attitudes would adjust accordingly!
ALL the Arab nations re-unite with Gods plans for all !
I am a bit worried about Trump talking to the interim leadership. Let us hope that he doesn’t opt for some shaky,easy deal or we will have done all this for naught.
History just accelerated. The decapitation of the regime led by Ali Khamenei is seismic — but don’t confuse shockwaves with stability. Killing the head of a theocracy doesn’t dismantle the machinery beneath it. The IRGC, the patronage networks, the coercive state — that’s the real fight. President Donald Trump just placed a massive bet that precision force plus internal uprising equals transformation. Maybe it does. Maybe it spirals. The Left will scream “World War III.” The neocons will chant “finish the job.” The truth? Victory isn’t airstrikes. It’s what replaces the rubble. If America engages, it must be decisive, limited, and tied to a clear exit — not another forever war.
Definitely— across the board. And the Basij have to go. And that’ll be a local issue — and not a pretty one. One thing about Trump: the guy’s a gambler. I guess the casinos were a tipoff….
Thats what both Trump and Rubio have been very clear on what the objectives are. Meet them, and we're out.
Time will tell if we are successful in meeting them, and if we are successful at exiting the conflict as expected.
It wasn't that Jimmy Carter did not try to rescue the Hostages, it was that he had surrounded himself with semi-competent 'yes men' who did not speak truth to power in an effective way. Carter launches two attempts to rescue the Hostages. Operation Eagle Claw in April of 1980 failed because of a desert sandstorm that caused fatal damages when two aircraft hit each other because of the unpredictable, but preventable, harsh desert environment. The second attempt occurred in the fall of 1980, just before the 1980 election named Operation Credible Sport when another plane crashed during the operation planning. IMO - Carter was all appearance and no substance. No one can EVER say that about Trump!
We never should have installed the Shah in the first place, but when he was overthrown and our hostages were taken, it should have been seen as an act of war and Carter should have responded accordingly. 47 years later we are still dealing with his mistake.
Maybe, but I remember that the last Shah was seen as a kinder, more humane Shah than those before him, but he still had the radicals to deal with. The Ali Khamenei was allowed to escape and live in Paris until he could return and overthrow the Shah. Our problem with foreign policy is that we stive to the never to be achieved status of 'Great', when maybe we should settle for 'Good' today, and maybe 'Great' Tomorrow.
Wise point. One add: NOBODY saw the Ayatollah coming. Even his own cadre didn't expect the revolution to succeed (recall that the Persan royal family went back thousands of years). It remains one of history's great mysteries: Why didn't the Shah act? (If you're interested in this stuff: King of Kings, by Scott Anderson. Anderson is left of me, but this book is fascinating)
Also, for Eagle Claw: Carter couldn't control his generals. They were all arguing about who would do what during the rescue, and so he tried to parcel it out. Army had one piece, Marines another, Air Force another, etc. As a result, the plan was discombobulated, and -- crucially -- the comms were a mess. The team couldn't talk to each other! And then, as you rightly note, the sandstorm sunk it. I was a kid and I remember being embarrassed by the image of a crashed U.S. helicopter on the ground in the desert. Carter was the architect of the worst national malaise of my lifetime. Perhaps until Biden, I guess. At least Carter didn't have dementia and throw the borders open.
in 1978, I was 30 years old and a Special Agent with the Government. I had a photo from a news article after the fall of the Shah pinned on the wall by my desk. It showed Iranian military officers tied to stakes and being executed by the Ayatollah's followers. Before the fall of the Shah and the rise of the Ayatollah, human rights groups had protested against SAVAK, the Iranian security police. SAVAK was like a Boy Scout compared to what followed it. Carter did not have a clue what was going on. He was a man who had no business being the President, but he was.
Good piece…thanks. That said, I have a feeling that with Iran we may have gone a bridge too far. The elimination of an evil dictatorship really can’t be accomplished without a coordinated strategy. Bombings alone have never worked and we can’t rely on the locals to rise up in sufficient numbers to take over. Iran has gone from 25 million to 90 million people most of whom support the regime. So excuse me if I don’t see much coming from these attacks. What I do see is a lot of potential for rolling violence around the world as this death cult seeks revenge…along with an economic crisis brought about by oil curtailment. Seems to me that the smarter route for regime change would have been the removal of Cuba followed by ending the Ukraine conflict. Iran is a much larger undertaking but at this juncture it’s too late.
Change your country’s name back to Persia,…..sounds lovelier, softer, historical! Even romantic in a way……embrace everyone, worship your own religion or faith ! Your ancient ideas, buildings and peaceful verbal exchanges, …..bring a subconscious thought of love & respect , …..I bet attitudes would adjust accordingly!
ALL the Arab nations re-unite with Gods plans for all !
Oh I love that idea. Yes. And “Persia”… historic, elegant, even kind of seductive… Yes. A rebrand!
I am a bit worried about Trump talking to the interim leadership. Let us hope that he doesn’t opt for some shaky,easy deal or we will have done all this for naught.