So... It's Boots On The Ground

Hats off to our military, but... a cautionary note

So — it’s on in Venezuela. If you’ve been reading this space, you know we’ve been advising that it’s coming.

So now what?

First, as former police and intelligence professionals, this space has to give all kudos to the U.S. military/intel apparatus. This stuff looks simple from a briefing room, sure. But in the real world even a simple operation has so many moving parts that any number of things can go wrong and generally do. Ask any law enforcement or intel pro if any operation ever goes perfectly. If you get an honest answer, it’ll be a resounding, “no.”

Yet the U.S. military seems to have — once again — pulled one off that is as close to perfect as possible. So much for Pete Hegseth not being up to the job... (funny how you don’t hear that anymore).

Now comes the (likely) harder part — rebuilding another basket-case nation into something that functions, at the least, as a non-adversary.

This writer has been all over Venezuela. It’s an interesting — often beautiful — place. It has tropics, urban areas, and something many don’t realize: mountains. The foothills of the Andes are out west, with many small towns that operate quite autonomously (many with a German influence, including Bavarian architecture. I leave it to others to conjecture on that).

The point is, President Trump has said that, “we will run Venezuela.” I am not predicting failure or attempting to second-guess at this point; we’re in it now, let’s get it done. But let’s clear — this won’t be easy or simple. As we used to often remind ourselves in the intelligence world: “the enemy gets a vote.” And we will have enemies there, for sure.

One last note: So much for the vaunted Venezuelan intelligence apparatus, always held out as Cuban-trained-by-way-of-the-Soviets. There is absolutely no way Maduro gets captured in one piece without major intelligence on-the-ground. More kudos to Ratcliffe’s CIA on this one. Very clearly: the Agency is back. The penetration must have been that complete. The Agency has taken its share of grief over the incompetence and depredations of the Brennan directorship (and rightly so, as this space has often opined). But they put Maduro and his wife on a dime, reportedly allowing U.S. Special Forces to grab him as he attempted to flee to a safe house. That means they had his panic room already scoped out.

Should’ve taken the deal, Nickie….

Sitting down now to pen a cautionary note, its strikes me as more worthwhile to just link directly to our Ops Drop of about a month ago. It makes the important points. So click the image below for that.

And lastly, recall: this is now a law enforcement matter. There will be a trial — or a plea. Maduro better have one hell of a story to tell if he expects clemency now.

(And speaking of trials: Will there be some in Venezuela? That could get messy…).

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And Now… It’s… The 2025 Oppy Awards!

So in case you were foolish enough not to have been among the joyous hundreds of thousands in attendance, you can now join Paul and Chris for our fourth annual year-end Ops Desk Oppy Awards — where we pick the winners and losers in the world of law enforcement and intelligence for 2025!

These much-coveted prizes are right there with the Oscars, Grammys, and Emmys when it comes to international recognition… and we pick ‘em here.

We went with all audio this year, but not an electric moment is lost… James Comey, John Brennan, Chris Wray, Kash Patel… just some of the names you’ll hear.

So click below for a sizzle… or HERE to (virtually) attend the gala of the season…!

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“We Are Going to Run the Country”

There is little doubt that many Venezuelans are pleased with Donald Trump’s actions right now. The scale and success of the Maduro grab is a remarkable demonstration of American intelligence and power. Venezuelans hope this moment leads to a better future for all their citizens. But that outcome is far from guaranteed, and Trump is playing a very high-stakes game.

At a Saturday press conference, the President explained his rationale for removing Maduro and bringing him to the United States. Maduro has been indicted for narco-terrorism conspiracy (under a bipartisan Patriot Act statute), conspiracy to import cocaine, and additional charges tied to his role as head of the Cartel de los Soles.

Beyond drug trafficking, Maduro was likely exporting criminals into the United States under the Biden administration. He is an ally of Putin and other American adversaries, an oppressor of his own people, and a persistent thorn in Washington’s side.

No one enjoys locking up drug dealers more than I do. But if we toppled every world leader who profited from narcotics, we’d be occupying half the Western Hemisphere.

After detailing Maduro’s crimes, Trump laid out his plan going forward. He stated that the United States will “run Venezuela” until a new government can be established—even if that requires U.S. troops on the ground. He made no mention of honoring the 2024 election Maduro ignored. Instead, Trump said Maduro’s vice president (who likely cooperated with the ouster) would oversee the country until a leader acceptable to the United States is installed. There’s no subtlety here: Trump is openly describing a caretaker puppet regime.

Trump also undercut the international optics by immediately pivoting to oil. He argued that Venezuela is underproducing and said the U.S. would boost output by inserting American oil companies into the sector. Again—no hiding the ball. Increased oil production may help Venezuela’s economy, but this framing risks making the entire operation look like an oil grab, even if it wasn’t.

The pitch is that we’re making Venezuela better for Venezuelans. Maybe that turns out to be true. Or maybe it doesn’t. We’ve heard this pitch from the State Department and CIA many times before.

For nearly 80 years, intelligence bureaucracies have sold American presidents on regime-change schemes. On paper, they always have answers. In practice, they usually fail. It’s hard to find an unqualified success story. A brief stroll through history makes the point:

· Iran – 1953
The CIA’s Operation Ajax replaced Iran’s elected leader with the Shah’s dictatorship.

· Guatemala – 1954
President Jacobo Árbenz was removed and replaced by a military dictatorship, triggering a 36-year civil war.

· Cuba – 1961
The Bay of Pigs—an obvious disaster—followed by equally amateurish assassination plots against Castro.

· Congo – 1960
U.S. and Belgian intervention produced the Mobutu dictatorship, which lasted 32 years. Congo’s elected president was executed.

· South Vietnam – 1963
The CIA approved President Diem’s execution. Twelve years later, South Vietnam ceased to exist, and the U.S. was pushing our own helicopters into the sea.

· Brazil – 1964
President João Goulart was deposed, leading to a 21-year military dictatorship.

· Dominican Republic – 1965
A U.S. invasion over communist fears resulted in Joaquín Balaguer’s installation as president.

· Chile – 1973
The CIA-backed coup removed Salvador Allende and ushered in 17 years of Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship.

· Haiti – 1999
The U.S. removed Aristide. Haiti remains Haiti.

· Afghanistan – 2001
After two decades of war, the Taliban returned to power.

· Iraq – 2003
Saddam was removed, ultimately yielding an Iranian client state after years of American bloodshed.

· Libya – 2011
Gaddafi was killed, leaving behind two fractured states locked in civil war.

I could add Cambodia, Laos, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen—each ending in misery and mass suffering, often at the hands of groups like the Khmer Rouge. The only arguable successes were Panama (1991) and Grenada (1983), unless you reach back to post-WWII Germany and Japan—an entirely different era.

I trust Trump as an independent thinker and hope he isn’t being steered by agencies with long records of failure. This is a massive gamble for a president who ran on fewer wars and fewer foreign entanglements. Trump understands motivation—usually money and success—something the State Department and CIA routinely mishandled. He believes he can break the pattern. If anyone can, it’s him. But success is far from assured.

Personally, I’ve had enough of U.S. military interventions abroad. So have many Americans. That’s one reason Trump was re-elected.

The corporate media checks party affiliation before deciding what to tell us. Had Joe Biden pulled off the same operation, they’d be hailing him as a strategic genius. Instead, they’re warning of World War III. At The Ops Desk, we call it as we see it. I have serious concerns about this move—but I hope I’m wrong.

We pray for the best for both the American and Venezuelan people. As always, we root for American success. But history gives us pause, and the Maduro threat did not appear existential. Is this truly what’s best for Americans? Perhaps there was a better way.

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Zoltar Speaks!

Zoltar Mamdani made a phone call to President Trump after the Maduro raid to voice his displeasure over the move. No doubt Trump immediately regretted giving Mayor McCommunism his number. Nothing like a phone call from an irrelevant in the middle of one of the busiest days of your life.

(“Zoltar will grant you three wishes… as long as they contribute to the collective.”)

Mamdani wasn’t calling Trump to congratulate him on the success of the operation, to give some important insight on the issue, or to check on the well-being of American personnel. He called to complain. We guess it couldn’t wait.

It is a sign of remarkable hubris or political posturing to make that phone call. Probably both in Mamdani’s case.

Mamdani called to say that the raid violated international and American law. Maybe he heard that on CNN – he doesn’t seem to have any expertise in the legal profession or knowledge of international law.

What is really going on here is Mamdani is signaling his support for his fellow travelers. Brutal dictator Maduro has the same political ideology as Mamdani. Two communist peas in a pod. His ouster is a blow to The International.

Communists are dedicated to the global spread of the ideology. Mamdani is no different. Trump’s move is an additional blow to the failed system. And it came with the added horror of increasing the supply of fossil fuels!

So of course Zoltar must speak out.

The good news: Clearly, no one cares.

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